WORDS: 2,083 — I think we can all basically agree that that whether Putin stops from his own failed military inertia and signing off on some cease fire or peace agreement, or whether the Battle of the Ukraine ends up continuing as a guerilla campaign against the Russian occupation over the next 20 years, the point is really that the international stability of the world is going into a new phase.
The war in Ukraine is often being compared to the war against Hitler in the last World War. Along with much of Europe at the time, the Ukraine was bombed far more than simply into submission but it’s people being executed and obliterated for simply being an “inferior species” of Russo-Slavic breeding.. Those cities and towns obliterated back then may have different names these days, but the older residents haven’t forgotten what they went through… at the hands of the “Germans.” In the typical bastardizations of whacked history that dictators seem to conjure up to give their territorial obsessions justification, Putin has decided that the Ukrainians need to be “protected” from the influences of the Western democracies, even if it kills them. So he conjures up a justification by making the Western-leaning Zelensky government look like an extension of the old Soviet enemy from WW2, the Nazis. “Nazis”? That label in itself is a bit out of context… hence this historical sidebar below.
Look, we all know the German people and subsequent changes in German governments since World War II have acknowledged their historical responsibility for their contribution to, if not directly causing, that war. It’s a collective guilt of an older generation of Germans alive at the time who are fading away, and subsequent generations of Germans have had to inherit that national historical guilt. There’s been a tendency in the decades since the war that public reference to the war has been to use the label “Nazis” as a substitute to using “Germans”. In our present world of political correctness, using the term “Nazis” softening the image of using “Germans” has found a home for sure. In fact, the Wehrmacht, the Luftwaffe, the Kriegsmarine of Nazi Germany was made up of largely few rank-in-file Nazi party members, although to be a military officer did require party membership. The fact is that when Hitler initiated Operation Barbarossa.. the invasion of Russia, the Wehrmacht non-Nazi soldiers were quite complicit in battlefield atrocities, torture, and genocide against the Ukrainians.. it wasn’t all about the solidly Nazi SS and their “Einsatzgruppen” units targeting Jews and those deemed racially inferior. So, a conclusion can be readily made that the German people of the day allowed themselves to be lead by the Nazi Party…. and not all Germans were card-carrying Nazis. Now, by assigning that conclusion I am not suggesting the German people of the day simply “allowed” Nazis to lead by some universal mandate. There was a complex array of social and economic issues of the day inherited.. and imposed… from World War I, the economics of a spreading Great Depression, huge unemployment and inflation, and distinct threats from political ideologies from outside Germany affecting Europe at large. It was a gut-wrenching time to try and survive…. and the public at large was vulnerable to what in better times might be considered extreme causes. In a humanistic way I can easily understand a vulnerability of will giving way to the compromise to survive. That’s not a dismissive of their collective responsibility for what happened. I think the term “Nazi Germany” is a far better descriptive reference label. After all, we don’t reference the war in Vietnam as being “Democrats” fighting the “Communists”.
Anyhow, Back To the Topic…
While the comparisons to the Ukraine history of World War II to now are apparent, we should consider a great difference being our communications technology offering nearly instantaneous imagery from the battlefield itself. In this case, the besieged Ukrainian population, along with the modern mainstream media and their sat link technology, are posting text video online, available around the world. This has a far greater public impact than that offered in 1941, when one thing happening on one side of the world could take days, if not weeks, or even months given the censorship of the day, for uncensored imagery to reach the public. The world public, especially the public of the democracies of the world, have watched literally the day-to-day decline of Ukrainian life, from peaceful, tranquil business… to being on the verge of thirst and starvation amid the rubble and constant bombardment of their lives by a brutal superpower with ancestral ties. What’s been happening for days has been the constant public bombardment, not only of a country under siege but of the suffering humanity in general. More than just the imagery of this suffering has been the stories of individual human suffering and loss of loved ones.
So, reader, I ask you, how can ANY human being with even the slightest bit of compassion for their fellow man, completely ignore all this happening seemingly in the here-and-now and right before our eyes? This has been why all the media push in recent days regarding the idea of America and her allies establishing a no-fly zone to at least try and give those poor people a chance. Well.. the reasoning in not doing that seems pretty valid to most people…. that being the unpredictable dictator of Russia is like any other dictator… mentally unstable and unreliable to think beyond self, and as such is very likely a threat to using nuclear weapons if he feels pushed into a corner. The ensuing “if he pushes the button the rest of us have to push our buttons” logic suggests an Armageddon scenario. Yet we are watching the destruction of a country and the murdering of a people… children.. babies… mothers… fathers. While we ponder that, there’s newer speculation from the White House that Putin just might use chemical weapons on these poor people. If/when that happens we can then watch children and babies gasping for air.. live, as it happens.
So, Let’s Contemplate This…
The Western nations, specifically America, is tired of forever wars, and while leaving Afghanistan happened like a bad root canal, we are accepting it’s over. Especially now with the Ukraine “thing” filling the news cycle, whatever is occurring in Afghanistan doesn’t really matter anymore. Out of sight, out of mind. We can resume obsessing about the damn price of gas per gallon, and our idiotic Trump GOP-fed political divisiveness. We don’t really need to toss our military into the Ukraine mess in another war… this time with the Russians. Well.. seems we may have to put those thoughts off for a while because the human suffering in Ukraine is pulling at our heartstrings… and is very likely about to get very worse. The irony to all this feeling is that there is NO doubt to ANY real American that we couldn’t clobber Putin’s Russian military’s ass in a battle… most assuredly with the help of our allies. It’s all about having the will to want to do it. At the moment there’s a bit of a doubt about sending our military into another shooting war, just to save Ukraine.
Well, truth be realized, the conflict is NOT about saving Ukraine as much as it is to stop Putin. In fact, there’s a sense I feel that there’s really not that great an animosity against the Russian people (they are being bulked up with propaganda), or even Russian soldiers (those are conscripts of young kids not knowing what they are doing) as much as this is a very personal war against Putin the man. If we think in that context there’s some sense to the possibility of getting into it with this guy as being a moral obligation to save fellow human lives. This so-called speculative line Putin has to force the Allies into before the Allies take action is far more about a moral line the Allies will accept before taking action.
Everyone Has A Recommendation On How To Handle Putin… So Here’s Mine…
Point 1 – Depending on the military logistical requirements to get it all organized and up and running, give Putin ?-week(s). I’d say, one week, before the Allies (not NATO.. call it a coalition-of-the-willing) institutes a no-fly zone over Ukraine air space.
Point 2 – An exclusionary zone extending 20 miles out from the entire border of Ukraine (even friendly countries) from which NO offensive artillery, missiles, or anti-aircraft fire can originate, which can violate Ukraine air space. This would include the position of naval vessels in international waters.
Point 3 – Russia can continue to conduct military ground operations inside Ukraine as it sees fit, and in accordance with the Geneva Convention, with freedom of movement in or out of Ukraine’s common borders with Russia and Belarus..
Point 4 – Russia cannot interfere with the safety and security or maintenance of nuclear reactor facilities inside Ukraine. Interruption of electrical output service would not be included in this.
Point 5 – Establish by agreement safe passage refugee routes to select borders.
Violations of Point 1 – Aircraft in violation of said fly zone to be escorted out of the area, or shot down.
Violations of Pont 2 – Launches, firings, artillery attacks targeted inside Ukraine from identified positions within the exclusionary zone will be fired upon with the intent to destroy.
Violations of Point 3 – Specifically the Geneva Convention regarding the use of prohibited weapons, if a violation and the ground units deploying such weapons can be identified, will be destroyed.
Will Putin Want To Launch Nukes because of this?
All speculation… but even with this demand he still can have what he wants.. IF he fights Ukrainians to get it.
The No-fly Mandate still gives Putin control of his ground forces, the numbers to introduce into his theater of operations, and supply and re-supply avenues are not restricted. He can also attempt to continue to make attempts to control government, infrastructure, etc. In theory, he can still “win” the country.
What about this idea of actually striking Russia head on if we shoot down one of their aircraft and it raises the level of a nuclear challenge? Well, Putin has a week to coordinate his command and control so if such and incident occurs then Putin himself ordered it to occur. There are certain levels of restraint in independent action that could be used with pilots enforcing the no-fly zone. For example, all shoot down authority must come from higher up the chain. There very likely would be a number of “cat and mouse” chases that would not require an instant shoot down. It’s still of value in having a Russian pilot focus on “teasing” an Allied pilot inside the zone than in dropping his ordinance on a ground target. Mission is still accomplished. Ironically, a no-fly zone would sure save the lives of Russian aircrews from being shot down on bombing missions.
There is a slight twist one could introduce into this no-fly arrangement to give Putin some face…. if that’s necessary. Include Russia in the no-fly patrols… maybe with an Allied wingman. They are just prohibited from targeting ordinance, of course. It makes it look as if it’s a joint international cooperative effort. Putin can call it what he wants to his own people.
The question then remains.. is any of this worth any sort of a risk that Putin might impose his nukes? Maybe we’ve not reached that point yet in seeing all the death and destruction on TV as it happens. But.. we will get to that point, and very soon.
But What If Things Just Go Along As They Are?
We are then going to see some truly sad things continue in Ukraine in the near future. The sanction effects and the dead Russian soldiers not coming home (they don’t even bring their dead from the field of battle).. and the living soldiers from the front lines rotating home, are all going to spread tales of what’s really going on. But all that will take time. The best of all worlds is if the Russian people themselves bring Putin down, whether a military coup or even a “storming of the Bastille” type revolution.. but even all that takes time, and the Ukrainians don’t have the time. Even if Putin somehow succeeds in taming the Ukrainians to his tune… he’s got years of guerilla warfare to contend with…. and we will have to put up with him again somewhere else. Now may be the time.