WORDS: 1,928 — The evacuation of Kabul? Yeah, it all looks bad over there. Things are out of control. There’s chaos everywhere. Things could have been planned much better for sure. The evacuation fiasco is all on the Biden team. People are desperate to leave; jumping on planes taxiing down the runway and dropping like flies to their deaths when the planes take off. Desperate people climbing over the walls, pushing through the razor wire.. fencing… trying to get out of Afghanistan before the Taliban lops off their heads or the heads of their family members. Video and images galore showing the American defeat by the Taliban.
Well.. I encourage the reader to step back and look from a wider lens here. The images of desperation are compelling to watch for anyone. The fact is.. if we want to investigate the screw up to point fingers, assign blame, make political hay to sway future votes… all that can be done later. Down the line when it’s appropriate we can go over the various post-mortem white papers, create commissions, appoint special prosecutors, all to investigate all the actions we did in Afghanistan, Until then it’s a good idea to keep focus of what’s going on. It should be NO surprise that after 20 years over there our leaving would be nothing less as painful for all as a dentist extracting an infected tooth without the use of Novocain, or as a TV talking head said.. like ripping the band-aid off. As Americans we usually like to feel good in the exercising of our foreign policies. We enjoy that moral high ground and it’s partially what (we think) adds to that “American exceptionalism” (that some other nations take exception to). After all, promoting democratic freedoms and human rights… R’ Us., right?
The Original Mission
While Biden’s speech was not the best he could have done, he did target on the reason we went into Afghanistan to provide context to the situation. We didn’t go there with the idea to nation-build and spread democracy. We went there to search for Al Qaeda and Bin Laden, and to search for terrorists being harbored by the Taliban government given Bush had declared a war on terrorism. We went there to take the “war” to the heart of those supporting terrorism. No more 9/11 for us.. Now… this “war on terrorism” comes in different facets as we started in Afghanistan. Our military shot into there to take control… oust the Taliban from control in order to release their ability to support terrorism. Obviously this created a vacuum in government to which we addressed in helping with what ended up being a nation-build and military build-up of their forces to sustain the on-going struggle with the Taliban, still a fighting force in certain rural areas of the country.
Not All Intel Is The Same
All our intel agencies. Any wonder if there’s confusion?
From another angle behind the scenes was the intel gathering and analysis in order to track the moves of potential terrorist groups and networks planning attacks directly in the West and the good old USA. This included working directly with those “warlords” and using good old American dollars to convince them to help. This worked and it was effective. One could argue that this helped hugely in keeping advance awareness of planning terrorist strikes, and keeping such attacks from happening in America. That worked. What also worked was the intel collected in tracking down specific leadership and follow up with necessary assassinations. It’s important to remember here that while the intel community in general is being ostracized for faulty advance warning of the strength and progress of Taliban advances that this likely had more to do with military intel gathering and analysis, along with State Department intel analysis… and NOT the same organizations assigned with international terrorist intel gathering. I think if you check back in the history in how we found Bin Laden, it was the folks who were gathering the intel from warlords and other confidential sources that we were able to follow where he was going.. or more like, where he had been.. Remember when Seal Team Six entered Bin Laden’s location in Pakistan and killed him? Immediately after they collected all the computers and media files.. which ended up being the proverbial “treasure trove” of intel information from which those intel folks could continue the “secret” war on terrorism. These are not the same folks that determine the military strength or whereabouts of an opposing fighting force.
By the way.. as we are all jumping on the bandwagon that America “lost” in Afghanistan.. keep in mind, our intel and military did in fact accomplish the mission of keeping further terrorist activity away from America, and those networks that were using Afghanistan as a base of operations were eliminated or they relocated to other countries. Al Qaeda all but vanished in country and Bin Laden himself left the country. The Taliban still was a fighting force in the rural areas for all those years we were introducing democracy and training a domestic military. You could easily say that we lost the nation-building effort, which in turn resulted in the Taliban gradually getting to today. Technically we had a “mission accomplished” moment to our original mission when we killed Bin Laden 10 years ago.
And Today?
Ok… let’s address the here and now. I certainly cannot answer for how the Taliban has been administering it’s re-conquered provinces. I have no idea if heads are rolling or women are being raped. I can make a basic assumption that many media reporters are still able to travel in-country and take advantage of communication infrastructure to file their stories. But I am not aware of any at this point (although a Reuters photographer was killed in some crossfire a week or so back). I have heard that a few cities and towns did have firefights or outright battles. But when the Taliban entered Kabul…. it’s been quiet. If I were to guess I would presume this is because no one wants to engage the U.S. directly in an urban shooting match. Plus there might be a consideration as to the strength of any local militia or leftover Afghan commandos. The city’s population is 6 million… many times more than the Taliban in the entire country.
I would like to think that after 20 years of watching us Americans and our allies that Taliban leadership might be more inclined to approach “conquering” less about getting even and retribution against the white infidels and more along the idea of preserving existing infrastructure.. which is extensive…. rather than blowing it all to hell and back. Also.. Americans have not been engaging the Taliban directly… and in fact, this has resulted in this unique “détente'” at the airport between those Taliban controlling the airport entrances and the Americans on the airport perimeter. A further curious development would be for the Taliban at the entrance to allow safe passage into the airport for any Americans still trying to get to the airport.
Some Hope….
As for those Afghan citizens who worked for or helped the Americans over the years, ala the interpreters, that’s hard to tell how the Taliban might respond to those not already at the airport. But here’s another sign I am seeing that this might be a “different” Taliban. .I am not seeing in any of the images.. video or photos… of wild celebration by the victorious Taliban fighters. No shooting of guns into the air. Remember that video of those Taliban fighters in the Afghan President’s office? No celebratory handshakes, no smiles, no laughing. Their weapons held casually, non-threatening. In the streets Taliban fighters are posing for photographs.. giving press interviews. This might suggest some command and control going on down to the rank-in-file. In other words, some intentional action to not incite violence. What does any of this mean? Could mean absolutely nothing.. or could be a visual “language” forming. I hope our diplomats are watching. As of this writing it’s being reported that there is a dialog between Taliban outside the airport and American military inside the airport.
No smiling faces.. no celebrating.. no threatening with guns.
As for fulfilling our promise to save these people who helped us in the field.. I see two schools of thought. I, too, feel strongly that we need to stick to our promises if for nothing else than we are Americans and we should be THAT good. The other consideration…. these people chose to help us as a way to serve their country. It was their contribution toward their own attempt to have democracy. It was the same as an Afghan citizen becoming a soldier in their military yet we don’t see ex-soldiers lining up at the airport with their family waiting to leave the country. Perhaps the next time we do this (hopefully not too soon) we don’t make these promises… we ask for volunteers, we pay them, give them housing and support… and let their WILL serve their country.,, not serve the United States.
Perhaps another lesson from our experience in Vietnam. Back in my college days of 1970 I oft promoted that America should just simply declare victory, an end to the war, and go home. Keep our embassy there.. give them lots of aid.. and simply buy their loyalty to us given they had absolutely nothing hence they would love American goods. Fast forward some 40+ years and that’s where we are at with them. My son went backpacking as a tourist in Nam three years ago with friends. Go figger he made it there and I never did. Point being… things could get a little more amicable this time around between us and the Taliban if we flat out don’t try and shun them completely.
Our Twenty Year Presence May Have Done More Than We Thought… Give It Time.
As for the human rights stuff and our obsession with how the Taliban treats women…. consider this. There’s been 20 years of education of the entire population. That’s almost two generations. If the Taliban just stops female education… there are still 20 years of educated females numbering in the millions roaming around the countryside… and they just might have a voice… especially in the bedroom. We shouldn’t count them down and out just yet. Also keep in mind that it’s a good chance the average Taliban fighter, who might have been a young child when the Americans arrived 20 years ago, has been part of this education along the way and might be able to apply acquired knowledge to influence a more modern approach. There is going to be a lot of latent Western cultural influence when the Americans leave. Afghans may not have had the will to pull a trigger… but they could very well have the will for a slower, more silent revolution.
What Might The Taliban Do After They Take Hold And Set Up A Government?
Hard to say. They can revert back to their near Stone Age lifestyle or realize that even a nomad country has to have some part in a global community in order to build commerce and form strategic relationships. Afghanistan could easily become a refugee destination should Pakistan or any of the other ” ‘stans ” on their borders have internal conflict. If so, they are going to need foreign help. This isn’t the same world as 20 years ago. Time will tell. But we should still watch for diplomatic opportunities and not just walk away. This should be part of the homage we give to all our soldiers who made the great sacrifice. The final chapter of America in Afghanistan has yet to be written..
I like how you are seeking positives, and they are well thought-out. Sadly, I fear the worst. Once the foreign military has departed, I suspect the revenge will begin. Shariah Law reimposed, and women can go back to living in the 10th century. They might leave a few ‘encouraging signs’ for the west at first, but their medieval leadership will eventually revert to type.
The country has one export, the products of the millions of Opium poppies grown there. Pakistan no longer has a reason to support them against the ‘infidels’, and the economy that was propped up by the US will undoubtedly collapse.
I think we had to go, and should have gone a long time ago. Because if the Afghan opponents to the Taliban do not want to fight their own war, then why should we fight it for them?
Best wishes, Pete.
Consider this, Pete… you are correct, there pretty much is nothing of value with their export capacity. They do have some minerals that can be mined. But on the short term… maybe their edge is in fact.. the reason we were the to begin with.. “the war on terror”. Invite the Allies back.. hell, even NATO… invite them back because of their need to keep tabs on terrorism. Accept aid from all parties in whatever form. There is an interest to watch Pakistan, Iran, Russia… a whole region from which Americans and the West would find a welcome “forward operating base” in the region. Thoughts?
The Chinese are offering to go there and develop roads, and other infrastructure. I presume they are after mining rights to the minerals. If the Taliban accepts, they get free roads and buildings, plus a lot of cash for the mining rights. That is ironic, as the Chinese are suppressng Muslim fundamentalists in western China. Seems the Taliban don’t care about that. Maybe they are the ‘wrong kind’ of Muslims?
I doubt they will let the US back in though, except to humiliate them by granting them forward bases while they oppress their people under Sharia Law with the ‘ silent complicity’ of America.
A fair assumption actually. I’ve been hearing talking heads speculating that the Chinese really want nothing to do with Afghanistan given the idea that the Taliban “win” might embolden the Muslim problems in China. I guess time will tell.
Thank you for a thoughtful and thorough look at the situation today in Afghanistan. You are entirely correct that our mission twenty years ago was to root out Al Qaeda and associated terrorists; that mission was effectively accomplished. Beyond that, I have suspected all along that President Bush hoped to establish western-style democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq to show that it can be done… before the Saudis are overthrown in Arabia and one more ally is thrown into anti-American rage and turmoil. That mission did not succeed. However, Bush could not have anticipated that the Saudis would survive another twenty years in power. (Frankly, I’m surprised as well.) He could not anticipate the “Arab Spring” in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria. Not that any of them have become more democratic or western in their governance, but it takes time for “enlightenment values” to take root and bear fruit. One can hope that enough seeds were planted in Afghanistan and Iraq that, in the long run, human rights are respected in those places and some sort of freedom emerges for the people living there. When all that is said, though, our exit from the stage was badly bungled, and that set of mistakes has consequences in our relations with other countries and in our politics at home. J.
Thanks for your kind reply. You make a good point about “enlightenment values” taking time to take hold. Yes.. the “exodus” got bungled.. and our appearance to others in the international community is with a black eye.
My problem, is that since the US had an end date…why were not those endangered Afghans not factored into the equation. Yes were neutered AQ but that was 5 years into the war and yet we stuck around to make Afghanistan in our image. Ask Alexander…ask the Brits….ask Russia …without some democratic experience the experiment was gonna fail….matter not if it was 5 years or 50. Like you wrote…it ain’t over. ..great post chuq
Thanks chuq. It’s the “graveyard of empires” thing for sure. As you just pointed out, AQ was neutered after 5 years. Mission creep again. What we are watching on TV playing out is part of that “pain” of withdrawal. The press keeps hammering away at the administration about “committing” to getting everyone out.. meeting the August 31 deadline… willingness to go past that date to make sure all the people are freed. I think you know as well as I given we’ve lived through this kind of news cycle in our past, that if the situation with the Taliban goes south at the airport and in Kabul… that we will just have to leave people there.
I fully expect in the mass exodus of people and airplane flights coming and going there will be at least one aircraft crash (remember during the exodus in Saigon when that USAF cargo plane full of children crashed?). There could very easily be attempts by some Taliban to shoot down one of these planes with an RPG. We are far from seeing any sort of an orderly departure. Simply put, even if the Taliban and us behaved ourselves during all this, the mass of humanity itself will make anything orderly completely impossible.