WORDS: 1,576 — In spite of the fact that we are very likely going to watch from the comfort of our living rooms the painful exit, and mass exodus from Kabul in real time 4k resolution as it happens… our memories on this one will likely be shorter than one might think given the 20 year investment of lives and money.
It’s not so much that Americans have grown weary of the Afghanistan experience in general but this ill-fated endeavor is just one of many crisis events making up what I am calling our national “grand funk” mood we’ve drifted into as a result of so many national events occurring at one time. In fact, to call this a collection of simply “events’ might be itself a bit of an understatement. From our political divide, to the pandemic, to the response to the pandemic, politicizing of the pandemic, the economy, the disparities of wealth distribution, the civil unrest due to gender and racial inequities.. the list goes on but nonetheless represents a deep rooted shift in our social and cultural, and political, identity as a nation. Even the statistical data recently made public regarding last year’s Census has confirmed what many have been feeling… white America is not as dominant a race as it once was. This will bother a lot of people.
Recent polls over the last few months have suggested Americans want out from Afghanistan to the tune of 60+%. Even as we watch the debacle forming at Kabul airport, and even as we gasp in shock & awe as to our ill-preparedness for this departure and subsequent human misery unfolding before our eyes… that percentage still holds true from what some polls are revealing. We may want out of all this but we are seeing there will be nothing “clean” about the way we leave.
President Biden has been taking a measure of heat for all the “bad” we are seeing unfolding in this evacuation. He should take the heat given all this was on his watch, but there were systemic issues in the failure of resources that contributed to this lack of adequate planning. The last loaded plane in this entire exodus hasn’t even departed Kabul Airport yet and in usual fashion the media is already exploring Biden’s political future as a result of this debacle. Let me help with that… it will matter very little. Of course the GOP/Trump base will use this in some shape or form, but by and large, this event will have little political significance down the line.
Strangely… as I was preparing this post, an article on CNN’s site showed up addressing many of the points I was making.
This Is Not Saigon 1975
Julian Zelizer, a CNN political analyst, is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University and author of the book, “Burning Down the House: Newt Gingrich, the Fall of a Speaker, and the Rise of the New Republican Party.”
Although US involvement in the Vietnam War had officially ended two years earlier with the Paris Peace Accords, the final scenes in Saigon were one more reminder of how utterly disastrous the entire operation had been. The lives lost, the families ruined, the money spent, the shattered standing of America overseas had all been for nothing. As Americans were evacuated from the Saigon on helicopters, this moment was the final humiliation for a nation that had stood proud after defeating the global threat of fascism during World War II.
Saigon fell with President Gerald Ford in the White House. Ford tried to avoid blame by pointing his finger at congressional Democrats for having cut funding for any remaining operations. Voters also knew that the heart of the conflict had taken place under Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon.
Today, some commentators are wondering whether the fall of Afghanistan will be as damaging to President Joe Biden. The sense of defeat and the failure to anticipate the strength of the Taliban has left the administration defending its decision. Conditions in Afghanistan can easily deteriorate even further. Republicans are all over this issue, using it to question Biden’s capability as commander in chief. Former President Donald Trump, whose administration negotiated the deal to withdraw troops by May 1, called on Biden to “resign in disgrace.”
But the collapse of Afghanistan is unlikely to be a decisive political issue. Most importantly, the fall of Saigon was not the issue that led Ford to be defeated by Jimmy Carter in the 1976 election. Ford, whose approval ratings increased after April 1975, was brought down by many other issues that weighed heavily on the public. The dire state of the economy in the mid-1970s and the aftermath of Nixon’s resignation following Watergate for the GOP were far more important.
Nor is Afghanistan the same kind of political issue as Vietnam in the 1970s. Vietnam was one of the most important issues the nation had confronted by the time Saigon fell to the North Vietnamese. The conflict over the war had literally consumed American life. There had been a massive anti-war movement that made the war an unavoidable topic in college campuses, churches, schools, civic institutions, newspapers and television, political campaigns, and more. Given that there had been a draft in place until 1973, every American family had been forced to wrestle with the possibility that their child would end up being sent into this deadly conflict – and many were. Vietnam was woven into popular music, film, and fiction. In other words, the Vietnam War had been everywhere in American life for over a decade.
In this respect, Afghanistan is no Vietnam. Afghanistan is not an issue that most Americans have been following very closely.
Even during the presidency of George W. Bush when the Afghan war was launched, Iraq was a much more prominent topic. The debate in recent years over whether we should have troops in Afghanistan had been one primarily reserved for foreign policy experts and talking heads in the media.
The massive expansion of our counterterrorism infrastructure within the United States has made us safer from terrorist attacks than in 9/11 even if the Taliban should decide to help threatening forces once again.
In contrast to Vietnam, Afghanistan was not a debate that raged on the streets of America. As a result, the odds that this weekend’s events will make or break Biden’s administration seem small.
We also live in a short-attention-span culture. As Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, it felt like the other big political story of the week – Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s resignation – faded into media obscurity. This is the culture in which we live, where issues come and go within days.
Given that we are in the middle of August 2021, with the next presidential election taking place in November 2024, it is difficult to see how Afghanistan will hold as a primary political force so many months into the future.
The issue that does have legs, the one which is most important right now to most average Americans, is the pandemic. Afghanistan will not compete for attention with all the problems and challenges that are still posed by Covid-19. The pandemic impacts our health, our livelihood, our education, and our communities in a way that is far greater and more immediate than the position of the Taliban.
To be sure, Afghanistan will remain part of the Republican political lexicon. The fall of Kabul will be like the question of “Who Lost China?” when Republicans in the early 1950s continued to blame Democrats for the fall of China to communism in 1949. It served as a symbol to conservatives that Democrats could not be trusted to be strong on defense.
As challenging as this might be for Biden to contend with – and as disheartening it has been to see a twenty-year war end with this outcome – Afghanistan won’t likely determine Biden’s fate if he decides to run for reelection. Nor is it clear it will have any significant impact on the 2022 midterm elections.
What Biden can’t do is to allow the challenges with Afghanistan to take his energy and attention away from real wartime test that he continues to face – the need to rapidly expand the nation’s rate of vaccination, develop better treatments for Covid-19, and guide the nation back to the normal we all tasted earlier this summer.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/opinions/saigon-afghanistan-biden-withdrawal-zelizer/index.html
I think from all this we can make a reasonable surmise that once this escape from Kabul is “completed” the general American public opinion will quickly fall into worrying about all those other things more important to home and family.. like the pandemic, politics, etc. I should also add… if the evacuation gets disrupted to a point where we have to yank all OUR American people and soldiers out of there post haste.. and leave the rest… it will be “Oh well… we tried.” Biden is not likely to suffer politically, certainly among those who want nothing to do with the Trump Party. The media that remains in Afghanistan is going to continue to report the abuses by the Taliban (if they can get away with it) and the sad stories of those we promised to help but ended up being abandoned. But even that will sooner or later be drowned out with the coming 2022 election campaigning and the competition for more Congressional domination. You can debate the right or wrong of it all but by and large, Americans in general won’t be feeling too guilty for those “foreigners” left behind. On the other hand, if the Biden Administration pulls this off and gets mostly everyone out.. you can bet this will help Biden popularity down the line.
I am no fan of Biden, but if Trump had won, his plan was to pull out of Afghanistan too, and likely earlier in the year than August. Our parliament was recalled from holiday today to debate the issue, all acting like they never thought the Taliban could move so fast. Even their gun-carrier pick up trucks can reach 70 mph, so it was fairly obvious to me.
Now they want a ‘public enquiry’. Millions spent to conclude that we left too soon, and were unprepared. We already know that, so let’s save the money and spend it on new hospitals.
Now the Afghans have to live with their decision not to fight. I cannot feel guilty about that, I’m afraid. In 1940, Britain fought against overwhelming odds, until help arrived in ’41. And we didn’t have US troops, special forces. drones, and jets helping us, as I recall. Maybe my ‘sympathy tanks’ are empty? Put that down to being old and cynical.
Best wishes, Pete.
We (Americans) have a fairly self-centeredness regarding our national interests and priorities, in my humble opinion of course. Our media and administration officials oft talk about “..in cooperation with our allies” and I am here to tell you the average American has NO idea what our allies do much less who they are. More importantly, what sacrifice they might be making to whatever operation is going on somewhere in the world. The Brits are our best “friends”.. yet there’s a lot we don’t know. What you just said serves to prove that even your “friendship” with us in America has to also pass Parliament and the scrutiny of your own press on each of these “little” international cooperative endeavors. Interesting your own elected officials and public outcry wants the similar investigation into all this ill-preparedness. I’m surprised no one there is screaming about “Do we have to follow the Americans everywhere all the time??” Thanks for your take on this, buddy.
First, Congress WAS to blame for the fall of Saigon and South Vietnam in 1975. The agreements that were made in January 1973 were blatantly broken by North Vietnam, but Congress refused to allow funds for the United States to enforce those agreements and defend its ally from all-out invasion. Ford desperately sought those funds and was denied.
Second, this painful, fumbling exodus has been nicely timed to disappear in memory by the time the next election rolls around. You are correct; it will blend with all the other “events” of 2021, and American voters will not hold the Biden administration responsible for this mess.
Third, whether we should have invaded twenty years ago and whether we should have stayed twenty years are two separate debates apart from our perspective of what has happened in the last few days. I saw an article on CNN that suggested that the Peoples’ Republic of China is eagerly eyeing Taiwan, hoping that they can bring about the next American embarrassment there. J.
Sorry they can defend this all they like…it is the same within one aspect…..Americans could care less about Afghanistan because their children were not pressed into serving…..plus the media had access that they do not have today and the media is owned by the same corporations that profited from this war so their coverage was a bit shaded…..chuq
Gotta admit.. you are correct that the media does have a different influence between then and now. I have a different perspective on some things because I never walked that walk as you did, my friend. Not any of us have all the answers but you certainly can provide a sobering perspective to consider given you’ve been there. I was number 53 in the lottery to serve in 1971. All my buddies were in the 100’s or greater and would have never been drafted. I’m a better person for it.. but I never had bullets whizzing past me to consider alternatives.
This is a good post..may I re-blog it? chuq
Of course.. no need to even wait for any consent.
😎
Doug,
Let’s take the truth, Biden is a terrible manager who is being managed by terrible managers in his Political Party..
Regards and goodwill blogging.
We might be best served waiting until we get through this to judge. First, common sense might suggest that no matter how great an exit plan was, some portion of it would naturally have been dependent on the strategic value of the Afghan military along with whatever American forces were still in place. Second.. I find any situation where one plans for an “orderly” process to leave a country after 20 years of being part of that country’s survival, that the mass of that country’s citizens are going to want to leave given who will be taking over… in this case being the Taliban. If ANY organized plan was in place… the result would like be little different given the collapse of the Afghan military, the Taliban at the gates, and the growing desperation of the people wanting out growing by the minute. You live in a fantasy world if you think any of this could be orderly.
Doug, you stated:
“We might be best served waiting until we get through this to judge. F
You live in a fantasy world if you think any of this could be orderly.”
I am judging him only only for his record during eight months of office, as a manager based the negatives that have occurred in less than a year.
1. Borders out of control because of lack of planning what would occur by opening the floodgates.
2. Inflation because of lack of planning the effects of giving away too much money in a short period of time.
3. Gas prices increasing and return to reliance of foreign oils and green energy equipment and more trade imbalances.by shutting down oil pipelines in USA and allowing pipelines from Russia to expand.
4. Allowing the Delta variant into the USA by not screening either visitor from infected Nations and even the open southern borders.
5. Afghanistan fiasco of setting a date and making now plans for an orderly exit we are now reading and hearing in the new.
6. Etc. Etc.
If you want more time to judge Biden, that your opinion. I have seen enough bad managers in my business career to recognize and empty suit.
I only hope he stays alive to serve out his term to avoid who he put in charge of the border mess five months ago and appears to be another empty suit based on the increasing number of illegal immigrants entering number States on public transportation paid for by taxpayers.
I read an AP news article that States Biden had no choice about leaving Afghanistan because Trump agreed to do the same.
So much for the leader of one of the most powerful Nations militarily in the World negotiation skills.
There seems that major news medial covering for Biden while at the same time judging and blaming Trump for everything that Biden can’t seem to manage.
Same as you seen it be doing in your fantasy world, in my opinion.
In other words, if Biden had worked in the Company I worked in, he would have been fired long ago, in my opinion based on just the first eight months of his term of management.
China, and Russia are the only ones who believe he is the best President ever to: serving” their agendas.
As for the owners of the media like Bezo who is making billions from imports, they love Biden just as much as Cinderella loved her Prince Charming fantasy fantasy stoiy.
Watch how fast China negotiates with the Taliban for mining rights of lithium and rare earth product for batteries as soon as the USA is out of their Afghanistan and their hair.
Regards and goodwill blogging.
And you want me to have confidence in your ability to spot bad management when you supported Trump?? Ohh.. Rudy. 🙂
I’m no Biden lover but I know enough about business to understand that much of this is part of recovery and a period in our history of immense social and political ills hitting the nation all at once… and nothing will “fix” overnight. But then again, it seems I have far more faith in humanity that all the Evangelical bloggers I associate with these days.
Doug,
Keeping the faith is usually a good thing to have providing what you have faith in is something that is good.
The definition of keep the faith is: “to continue to believe in, trust, or support someone or something when it is difficult to do so to continue to believe in, trust, or support someone or something when it is difficult to do so”
Biden’s record in office is indeed difficult to believe that it was good, in my opinion.
But if you want “to continue to believe in trust or support,” it reminds me about the fate of another group described in a good, in poem verse “onward rode the 600”
The Charge of the Light Brigade by Alfred, Lord… | Poetry Foundation
Regards and goodwill blogging.
Doug, you stated:
“We might be best served waiting until we get through this to judge. F
You live in a fantasy world if you think any of this could be orderly.”
I am not judging him, only commenting my opinions of how in only eight months of office, he is being judged as a manager based the negatives that have occurred in less than a year.
1. Borders out of control because of lack of planning what would occur by opening the floodgates.
2. Inflation because of lack of planning the effects of giving away too much money in a short period of time.
3. Gas prices increasing and return to reliance of foreign oils and green energy equipment and more trade imbalances.by shutting down oil pipelines in USA and allowing pipelines from Russia to expand.
4. Allowing the Delta variant into the USA by not screening either visitor from infected Nations and even the open southern borders.
5. Afghanistan fiasco of setting a date and making now plans for an orderly exit we are now reading and hearing in the new.
6. Etc. Etc.
If you want more time to judge Biden, that your opinion. I have seen enough bad managers in my business career to recognize and empty suit.
I only hope he stays alive to serve out his term to avoid who he put in charge of the border mess five months ago and appears to be another empty suit based on the increasing number of illegal immigrants entering number States on public transportation paid for by taxpayers.
I read an AP news article that States Biden had no choice about leaving Afghanistan because Trump agreed to do the same.
So much for the leader of one of the most powerful Nations militarily in the World negotiation skills.
There seems to news medial covering for Biden while at the same time judging and blaming Trump for everything that Biden can’t seem to manage.
Same as you seen it be doing in
In other words, if Biden had worked in the Company I worked in, he would have been fired long ago, in my opinion based on just the first eight months of his term of management.
China, and Russia are the only ones who believe he is the best President ever to: serving” their agendas.
As for the owners of the media like Bezo who is making billions from imports, they love Biden just as much as Cinderella loved her Prince Charming fantasy fantasy story.
Watch how fast China negotiates with the Taliban for mining rights of lithium and rare earth and other mined raw mineral products for batteries as soon as the USA is out of their Afghanistan and their hair.
Regards and goodwill blogging.