WORDS: 2,299 —  I’m reminded of the Kenny Rogers & The First Edition song of 1970…  “Feel it.. feel it.. fire… fire… somethings burning…”, except in this case it’s nothing to do with love.  Yeah, there’s something burning in this country alright.  It’s a fuse having been lit and the flame is heading toward a real “Mission: Impossible”Am I being simply an alarmist?  To be sure I am echoing a “red alert” that’s increasing in the land regarding a threat to the Republic.

Just five days ago I did a post on how Trump’s Big Lie may affect the next two elections (HERE) I included pointing out that while the Trump Republicans might shine in 2022 to capture a few seats and maybe shift the majority, that there was no way he himself would win in 2024.. if he decided to run.  I even speculated why he might not choose to run regardless of all his political teasing.  Included in all that was a real warning about the future two elections, 2022 and 2024, and how the imposition of the Big Lie rhetoric is going to feed the denial of legitimate voting processes, and whittle at the overall confidence in the elections, and thusly become a challenge to our Constitutional voting process… not to mention my perception of real civil violence breaking out as a result.  So, why am I going down this road again?  Well, firstly, to bring home the emphasis that all this is very real.  Secondly, to include some greater detail on the real threat to American democracy itself.  Quite obviously it’s my attempt to focus importance to this threat and to present the possibility that the nation should pay attention as to what is happening.  The sad part in trying to keep alive a warning like this is even that much is too politically divided.  Trump supporters are way too focused on getting Trump and his minions back in power that they are not even imagining the inevitable damage to the nation as a result of that.  They can’t see the forest o’er the trees.  One might ask, does their ignorance relieve them of being ultimately complicit when things start tumbling down?  Will blame even matter at that point?

I tend to be rather non-radical.. or non-activist.. in my online politics (and certainly in the real world as well).  Yes, absolutely I have opinions as any person does, hence this blog to be a form of personal therapy of sorts simply to “get it all out there”, which I dare suggest, therapy is the reason most of us with opinions dare to blog it all out to an un-caring world.  In my case I value diverse ideas to sometimes fine tune my own.  I don’t blog my opinions as a statement that my way is correct and your way totally sucks (although that has its entertainment value as well).    I do NOT see our current national political struggle as anything other than adjusting to a changing dynamic social flux of personal identity inside a point in time in America, and world history in dealing with instant technological communication, population growth, and with that the hugely shifting and migrating population dynamics.  One word for it all might be ‘techno-shock” (or “technoshock”)… that feeling of overwhelming anxiety and stress people experience when they realize all the data from all the increasingly more rapid technological advances of our world is exceeding their brain’s ability to process it.  This “shock” then carries through to dictate our social actions, relationships (all around), and our politics.  Too much, too fast, which makes it all too threatening, to which we then become too fearful………. and less trusting of each other, with more anxiety felt toward an ever expanding unknown future.

So, in presenting that base reasoning as being the start toward recognizing our current conglomeration of national problems, one might find an understanding of sorts in not being totally surprised in the rise of a character like Donald Trump being a voice of the frustrated, disenfranchised,  and those feeling economically victimized, and politically victimized by social “elites” (typically educated and professionals) along both coasts.  We could easily toss into that mix some racial component of a declining white majority demographic.  Oddly, it’s all similar to that national “disgruntled-ness” experienced in the 1920’s and 1930’s Germany, following Versailles of WW1.  Oh, jeez… again, another damn comparison between Trump and Hitler!  No.. this isn’t the usual Godwin comparison.  It’s an example of a historical concept that in times of national struggle, especially in economics, where a population in general feels victimized and/or betrayed by their leaders, a charismatic figure will arise to represent a collective populist voice of all that is “wrong” which typically results in a variant of a “throw the bums out” political movement. (My reference has nothing to do in comparing Trump to Hitler or even Nazism.  Yet, such populist figures in history do have an authoritarian approach that adds to their populism, especially when a previous representative government became too bogged down to be of any use, or was not totally “representative”.  I suppose I could have used the example of Spartacus back in 72BC…. but a 20th century reference was a better… relatable… example.)

Being a self-affirmed humanist in general I embrace humanity as being.. well, human.  This by no means suggests I accept all human behaviors at all times and in all ways in some social complacency.  People are responsible for their actions.. or inactions.  I Include myself in that as well.  You strangle my daughter on some cross country trip and leave her body to rot in some wilderness area… I will not be shrugging it off as you are some victim in not having had much attention as a baby.  I will not be thinking of the administration of Constitutional justice toward you, but rather, how I am going to kill you… in the same exact way (I feel like Liam Neeson on that one).  Let someone else explain MY human response.  Well, at least  fortunately the vast majority of us can contain emotion and place it perspective in accordance with our daily lives and encounters.  In my case I tend to be pragmatic in trying to present some solution to make things better or keep things from getting worse… while recognizing my version of “better” or “worse” can be subjective as much as anyone else’s version of better or worse..

So, how does all this relate to Trump and this Big Lie warning for the next two elections?  Of course Trump was raised ineptly and he has subsequently fulfilled those shortcomings as he grew into adulthood and his demonstrated behavioral dysfunctions.  If you need some science behind this just read his Ph.D. niece, Mary Trump’s book, Too Much, And Not Enough… and all the other Trump psych books.  But regardless how one might paint Trump a victim of poor parenting this does not release him from personal responsibility for anything illegal he has done, nor any moral responsibility, or irresponsibility, for having used his position to influence his contribution to the political divide,  and the promotion of denial of a Constitutionally affirmed election to the point of inciting an insurrection against Constitutional process.  Whatever befalls him for all his efforts he bears sole legal and moral responsibility, and sustained consequences, for his actions… short of physical harm, of course (more on this later).

SIDENOTE:  To illustrate the mind of Trump and complete lack of anything resembling human empathy, consider the following quote from Trump regarding the passing of Gen. Colin Powell.

(CNN)   Roughly 24 hours after the death of Colin Powell, Donald Trump proved, again, that he is utterly incapable of empathy, grace or even common decency.

“Wonderful to see Colin Powell, who made big mistakes on Iraq and famously, so-called weapons of mass destruction, be treated in death so beautifully by the Fake News Media,” Trump said in a statement released Tuesday morning. “Hope that happens to me someday. He was a classic RINO, if even that, always being the first to attack other Republicans. He made plenty of mistakes, but anyway, may he rest in peace!”
“But anyway, may he rest in peace!”      Yes, Trump really said that.

Here’s some notable points regarding this threat to our voting process.

  • My prediction, Trump will not run, and if he does he will not win.  How am I so sure of any of that?  Well, obviously I am speculating.  But what makes me speculate this… Trump will not run because he fears losing more than anything else.  It was reported the rage he went through when Biden won.  It’s his fear of losing.. being a loser… that feeds his denial that he lost and that the election  was a fraud.  He’s doing this “maybe” tease thing both to watch the reaction and his overall favorability, and to position himself for a “torch-passing” of sorts to a favorite minion, and a loyal minion VP running mate.  That way if the GOP loses that election it’s not his fault.
  • “You said he will not win if he does run, Dougie-boy.  Where’s that coming from?”  First off, if you are a believer in the Big Lie of that last election, of course you can’t imagine Trump not winning this time around given all the Red State legislatures providing optional challenges if the vote goes against him.  In the real world Trump lost an electoral AND popular vote counts in 2026.  Why would that outcome even change for the 2024 election?  Is there some thought that his four years of domestic chaos and behavioral dysfunction seduced more voters, en masse, to his side to make a difference in 2024?  Um.. I think not.  Certainly the polls don’t show it either.  More people dislike him since the last election.  He’s never bothered to make any attempt to win more friends, unify the nation, instead courting his supporters constantly.  All his rallies have been less about substance and policy and all about blaming the “other” and bemoaning being a victim of the Big Lie.
  • But what about Biden and his current record.. and HIS approval rating taking a dive?  Won’t that push Biden voters to Trump?  Well, that’s apples to oranges.  Yep, the polls are showing a drop in Biden’s approval, but from that do we draw a direct line to an election loss?  I say no.  People might not be in approval for now… but they are not going to vote for Trump, or any GOP minion.  Biden’s worst case with his supporters is that he wins because voters are truly incensed against a Trump return.  There may be policy differences and policy outcomes in the short term in question with Biden but there’s no chaos in behavior between agencies within the governmental process with Biden.  Voters don’t want the chaos back in the White House and will accept retaining Biden………. BUT……..
  • …..what about Harris?  I have a strong feeling Biden will step down after one term and let Harris take it.  That alone  will assure a voting bump from the female vote… and the black vote.  Again, Harris is not a Trump and will continue  a non-confrontational style.  Now, this is not to say she will do anything any  better or worse than Biden.  
  • Then that leads to the question, what’s really important to the voting public?  The pandemic is the all-important public interest right now.  Right or wrong, Afghanistan is a fading memory… at least that “war” is over (for now).  “Bucks and lives being saved, let’s move on.”  I also think that while the polls have favorably expressed the public finding favor with Biden’s infrastructure and social aid package bills… the public just isn’t all into it because the real priority is all about the recovering economy (especially the increased costs and shipping bottlenecks threatening Christmas). what inflation will do to families…. finding better paying jobs that can actually support a family, and the pandemic, so kids can go back to school safely.  People are so tired of the pandemic.  No question we need to fix roads and bridges… “but maybe we can suck it up a while longer to get the economy fixed first.”  Yeah, free community college, increase in paid family leave, (just look at all that “stuff” HERE, that’s important, but perhaps not right now on the public’s priorities.).  “I just want to take my mask off and go back to the ‘before times’.”  Does anyone honestly think these folks want Trump back in the White House for a ‘better’ life?
  • Between Trump’s nonsense rhetoric to set up the Big Lie for the next couple elections, you have his Trumpian followers being fired up with crazy concepts at each rally, and reported on all the Conservative “lie” media.  It’s a cult.  These people are ready to drink the Kool-Aid and striking out in any way possible.  A relatively small group to the total population the truly volatile they may be, the hate from the Right is getting thicker by the day.  There will be NO reason for Trump to use his verbal codes, nods and winks. He will just flat out tell his followers how and when to lash out.  As they say, be afraid.  Be very afraid.

So What Exactly Should We Expect to Happen Either in 2022 or 2024, or Both, and What Might Be the Trigger?

That’s for PART TWO of this two-part series.


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