WORDS: 1,841 — The atmosphere in the land is indeed growing in an anxiety about the upcoming elections. More and more we see the Trumpian lies being believed by the Republicans… or what’s left of Republicanism. The signs are everywhere, and the media pundits, political strategists, and political insiders are sounding the alarm bell. Is there any hope for the country?
Fellow blog buddy, chuq (Lobotero), over at his In Saner Thought blog, recently made a post, Would A Split Be Good?, where he discusses the idea of a secession being worth considering given there are some signs we are already heading there. He states the divide representation in some public polls, on both sides, suggests a growing public interest in the concept, perhaps if for nothing else than avoiding violence having the suggestion of a civil war. One of the source quotes he cites in his post was the following…
“The divide between Trump and Biden voters is deep, wide, and dangerous. The scope is unprecedented, and it will not be easily fixed,” said UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato.
I replied in part to his post…
“I think there is a better focus to be made that this is NOT an issue of “Trump voters and Biden voters”. This national divide is entirely about Trump supporters and anti-Trump supporters. The elections are about Trump vs. Biden. This imaginary talk about secession is all about Trump supporters and anti-Trump.”
I ended that reply with the following..
“The “good” news is that November 2024 is a long way away.. and any number of events can pop to alter the trajectory of that political “asteroid” from hitting us.”
We are seeing most everywhere reporting that Biden isn’t doing so well in the “approval” polls. The media and pundits are also lamenting the fact that Biden is having trouble getting his legislative agenda passed.. those two pricey bills to “build back better” America’s real and extended infrastructure.. past even a split Democratic caucus in the House. Then that “root canal” exit from Afghanistan felt more like a tooth extraction without Novocain. We could argue (and do actually) on the timing, but we ARE out of there finally and the logistical evacuation could have been hugely worse. Biden might have waited a bit for certain domestic priorities to be moderated…. like the pandemic. The occupation itself at the time he took office was not of super urgency to save American lives given the existing combat conditions against our troops had been at a lull for quite some time even with the Taliban taking over the rest of the country. Again, all debatable and my presumptions are entirely “armchair” based. I don’t get a security briefing or a threat level assessment with my breakfast each morning like some people.
Here’s where I am headed with this. The recent polling is showing Biden as declining in favor as a result of all the Democratic infighting on his legislation, Republican obstructionism, the rough departure from Afghanistan, the border “thing” still being a thing, the pandemic still causing sickness and death amidst a political denial of science, a struggling economy trying to recover…. yada, yada. My perception is that Biden has correctly read what the public at-large wanted.. BEFORE… the pandemic. It’s my feeling that the public is really weary of the not-normal world they.. we.. were all thrust into, and when the vaccine started to take hold the public has been strongly pushing the back-to-normal. Then the Delta variant took hold. Back to illness, suffering, dying…. and all of that on the unvaccinated. Trying to get kids back to school safely is in itself a political science-denier nightmare. In the meantime… the economy itself, while re-booting well in general, has a large segment of the population meandering the moral path of career change rather than going back to minimum wage jobs or jobs not being able to support the family. Truck drivers have retired early or left the profession during the Covid year forcing slowdowns in distribution of things we need to buy. In fact, globally distribution is in chaos as ships laden with goods can’t get to port to unload because the dock personnel were reduced during the lockdown time. The point being to all this… the public seems to have less concern over Biden’s agenda bills than the Dem strategists seem to think. In fact, I don’t think Afghanistan is an issue for the general public given that’s a done war.. for now. The public is striving to get back to some “normal” that was before the pandemic started. The economy matters.
Those recent opinion polls showing Biden’s declining popularity in his “job approval” I simply do not see as contributing to the idea that this somehow favors Trump Republicans in a future election… as if this “negative” conjuring of Biden means votes for Trump. I believe these polls are simply reflecting what folks think of Biden’s performance and nothing else. Let’s extend this idea a bit further. These folks may not like Biden but they may very well dislike Trump all the more. Trump lost the last election.. and also the popular vote.. for specific reasons regarding Trump. So, regarding Trump, what’s changed that would turn any of those votes toward Trump? He’s definitely gotten worse with the Jan. 6th/Big Lie, and most definitely, if a voter hated Trump in the last election what’s going to change their minds this time around when the man has gotten worse? Remember… a lot of the Biden win in 2020 was because of dislike for Trump.. and not because Biden was the “big attraction”. For them Biden was a great relief from four years of constant chaos… not a purveyor of a great social agenda. I honestly think we’ve failed to consider that perspective more than we should have. I am suggesting that I think voter defections from Biden in 2020 over Biden policy shortcomings will not be as drastic as we think. Trump has done NOTHING to endear 2020 Biden voters to him. Nothing. Just the usual name calling, political threats to his enemies, expressions of the Big Lie about the PAST election… threats to democracy. No policy statements… no words of encouragement.. the same old Trump. To top that off, his followers mumble things of sheer lunacy.. like civil wars.

See what I mean where Trump is at this same exact point into the term? (Note: Seems to be something amiss between the Biden number in the graphic at the top of this post being 38%… but this doesn’t change the point I am making that Trump was low because most voted against him in 2020.)

2024… maybe?
Where does that leave us? As I commented earlier in this post, we have a lot of time for outside events and social influences to change things for the better for the Democrats and for Biden even before 2022. But are we simply assuming Biden will run for a second term in 2024? My immediate thought during the 2020 campaign when Biden brought on Harris was that Harris was going to run instead of him in place of a second term. After all, Biden is 78 now. He will be 81 when his term ends. With your mortality staring you in the face why would you want another four years doing this stuff? Better to quality time with family what time you have left. Whether Biden has good or bad poll reporting by the 2024 election… what better candidate to assure a Trump defeat than Harris? Did you just note what I stated there? The goal for the Democrats should not be about a Biden or Harris “win”.. but rather a focus to completely defeat Trump… and absent that, also defeat any Trumpian follower should they run. In that there IS a distinct difference. I am hearing daily the constant warning about Trump winning an election.. the end of democracy as we know it. Then do the next best thing… make sure he’s defeated because we already have a head start with all the voters who didn’t vote for him in the last election, and likely many more. I’m willing to wager my next slot machine payout that right now Trump is in no better position to win a thing in 2024 than he was in 2020.
SIDEBAR TIDBIT – What makes Harris a viable possibility in 2024? Honestly, she amplifies the women vote… and in no way carries the political history (and incendiary dislike) of a Hillary Clinton. Ok.. maybe a couple debatable past cases as an AG.. but in her case, at this point in time, she’s an easy alternative to a 2024 Trump return to the White House… IF the goal is to defeat Trump or one of his minions.
Now.. having stated that Trump is in no better position to win a thing in 2024 than he was in 2020 , there are serious concerns, as I have suggested many times before in other venues, that we will definitely have those red state legislatures trying to deflect, de-certify, accepting votes and doing their own voting if they see their state counts turning away from Trump. That is the real and true threat we have to our democracy. But as Americans we have no choice but to carry the 2024 election to its Constitutional conclusion. What happens after… well…….. pray.

Is his dysfunction our destruction?
So far Trump has not yet declared he is officially running in 2024. We should hope he does as it will make his defeat much more assured. If someone else runs on the GOP ticket then that changes the election strategy considerably toward more traditional options. Do I actually think Trump will run? If he does it will be for effect only, and he won’t follow it to the end. Why? He truly hates losing to the point he’s got a behavioral dysfunction toward it. This is why there were all these reports leaking from the White House about his temper and rage in losing in 2020. It’s also the entire motivation behind the constant lamenting of the Big Lie. He’s convinced himself he actually won in 2020. His involvement in January 6th was his “not surrendering” to defeat. Normally, when average people exhibit this kind of obsessive denial there might be a family intervention and/or a visit to a therapist. But Trump was the leader of the country for four years and people do listen to what a president says.. and some choose to believe and to follow them. Remember, we have a nation of some 350 million people so it becomes a numbers game on who people choose to follow and for what reasons. I don’t think he will run because he fears the pain of losing. He also has his own age reality. He’s 75 now and would be 78 by 2024… if his Big Macs don’t incapacitate or kill him first.
But let me further echo the words of warning here. Even if Trump is defeated in 2024.. and for that matter if things don’t pan well for the Trumpians in 2022, while that may be generally a welcome outcome, there is a very serious threat from Trump followers in state legislatures to try and de-certify, or not certify the vote counts, then vote in session for Trump replacements. In this case we should expect a non-Trump backlash in spots across the country to react violently. Don’t expect the 2022 or 2024 elections to be a win-win for the country in general.
Just my opinion as a foreigner, but I doubt Harris can win the next election against anyone other than Trump. The Democrats need to find another JFK, an outwardly respectable white family man who has some good years left to give.
Best wishes, Pete.
Very good, Pete! You have the pulse of our nation. 🙂 Which was my point. I also don’t think Harris would win against anyone other than Trump.. and the fact she would be female would also provide a “female vote” bump to help the vote count against Trump.
We dislike Trump for different reasons. As an independent, able to see both sides of the equation, I’m interested in your opinion of Rand Paul should he decide to become a candidate in the Presidential run for office? There are few politicians who really care about “we the people” instead of their own self interests.
Appreciate your wanting my thoughts on Paul… but not sure I can bring forth a lot of positives. He does seem to appear one of the “majors” who might find a seat at the GOP candidate table… but he doesn’t seem to curry favor a whole lot with Trump…, although he’s obviously a Trump supporter. Maybe they share hugs more privately. Paul had that flutter a while back with his wife’s dabbling in the market; I’ve not followed that further. I personally do not relish the gentleman for a few things. One was that letter he signed with 46 of his GOP buddies sent to Iran in an attempt to thwart Obama’s diplomacy efforts in trying to set up what was to be the Iran Nuclear Agreement. That smacked of diplomatic subterfuge toward a sitting president. But it did foretell the inevitable political divide we currently are experiencing. I also did not and have not appreciated one bit his blatherings about the pandemic, the science of Covid, masking, vaccines.. yada, yada… and given he’s a doctor he assumes a measure of credibility for many people as some voice to listen to regarding Covid. Even though he’s an eye doctor (and very likely a good one.. politics does not serve to judge a person’s skills in other fields), that discipline has little to do with viral science…. and his explanations of same are simply political rhetoric found on Conservative Trump sites… not from personal research or knowledge. I also do not have warm fuzzies on his position on January 6. So while his voting record suggests about 25% on liberal measures in the past…. which seems a fair balance for anyone of the opposite party… I can’t say I have any personal admiration for him at all.
Now.. if Trump chooses not to run… that opens up possibilities for a number of GOP’ers BUT… only one will get the nod from the Orange Man and I am just not sure Rand Paul will receive that nod.
Having said ALL of that about Rand Paul… consider this… if I have to choose between Trump or Paul being president… hands down it’s Paul… not Trump.
Image-wise… and that does make a difference in politics to many… I find him a bit aloof, and just another Trump Republican. As far as him being “for the people”… care to share?
Doug,
The best outcome after the 2922 election is for the GOP to win a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate to deservedly impeach both Biden and Harris which will result in the new GOP House Leader become President until 2024,.
Right now if Biden goes to heaven or hell nd Harris becomes President or Pelosi, it will result in total chaos, in my opinion.
Regards and goodwill blogging.
Hehehe.. well, Rudy.. that may be the best outcome… but only if the red state legislatures keep their fingers off the counting scale. We’re heading for more “insurrection” games ahead to be sure. As for impeaching anyone… really doesn’t matter anymore. I do find it interesting though.. the country in a shambles for all kinds of political, economic, and social reasons.. problems everywhere.. and all you are concerned about is revenge by impeachment. That’s way Trumpian.
Doug,
Your are mistaken my motive. It has noting to do with Trump and everthing to do with accountability of legislators who take oaths and then forget what they swore in minutes after being elected.
Regards and goodwill blogging..
If Interested in the words of the oaths
https://rudymartinka.com/2021/10/13/biden-gangs-and-drugs-conundrum-king-solomon-blog/
Actually, I agree with that! The entire Congressional GOP has forgotten even their own remarks (if not loyalty to the country) just to kiss Trump’s ring and pledge their loyalty to him.
Honestly Rudy.. it is ALL about Trump. Just listen to any one of his rallies. What solid policy issues does he address other than to fire up the crowd with how bad “the other” is.. and of course, the Big Lie.? Is he trying to get votes? From where exactly?
Doug,
Now tell me the truth, After 10 months of Biden, if you have to make a choice, between only Biden or Trump, who would you vote for if you had to make a choice or die. based on which one accomplished more for the USA
Be truthful,
Regards and goodwill blogging.
or die, which one would you vote for based on The accomplishments achieved to benefit the USA?
Regards and goodwill blogging.
Accomplishments? That assumes what was “accomplished” is automatically a good thing. It also depends on the condition of the country at the time an administration starts. Trump inherited from Obama and that was FAR different than Biden inherited from Trump. There is NO apples-to-apples comparison as some measure of “success”. Trump had no pandemic at the start of his term yet Biden did. That alone.. with all the social effects, economic shutdowns, deaths, politics, shortages of everything.. still going on. Then add to that the other thing Trump left to the country…. the intense growing divide over his promotion of the Big Lie to further alienate the country which caused an insurrection.. and likely more violence in the next two election cycles. No, Rudy.. there it no pissing-match comparison of who “accomplished” more.. given Biden rescinded a number of Trumpian nonsense decrees.
I do not one bit measure Trump on any “accomplishments” because he was an immoral, sociopathic buffoon with severe behavioral issues and remains a clear and present danger to the nation. I do not subscribe that the end (his alleged “accomplishments”) justifies the means (his random, immoral and insurrectionist behavior). For me, regarding Trump.. issues be damned. He’s a danger to the nation and always was.
Biden may turn out unable to solve all the nation’s ills.. maybe even create a couple more while trying to address other problems, but then could we assume that from any president with any concept of reality? That’s why we vote. But I am sure Biden will accept any defeat for a smooth transition to the next person. Trump didn’t.
Let me enhance my thought here, Rudy. I have NO problem with debating the merits of what Trump supporters “think” Trump ideals for America might be (I honestly don’t think he even knows because he’s so impulsive and totally running on self-interest and personal emotion). I simply do not support Trump as being the spokesperson for his supporters in general. Trump supporters should truly find another voice to represent them. I am dissing Trump the man…. and willing to discuss what he represents… assuming the hodge-podge collection of his supporters know themselves what he represents.
Thanx Doug for the shout out….polls are notoriously wrong these days….so I take them with a grain of salt…..Not a Harris fan……no Dem right now can lead this country back….and definitely not Repub….just a thought. chuq