WORDS: 1,526 — WTF.. his hairdresser, you say?? We’ll get to that reference in a moment.. But this idea that Putin’s decision to invade the Ukraine is “imminent” seems a bit out of whack to me given what’s being shown to us via the media as “proof”. I’m guessing that (as usual) we, the people, are not getting the entire picture. That’s not one bit to suggest we should, at this point. Negotiation is always a new language between the parties involved… and there are times we, the people, are best served by not telling us everything. That’s called having trust and faith in your leadership. That in itself is a rare thing these days.
Regarding Putin’s hairdresser having all the intel regarding his next move toward the Ukraine… well… you have to be a Baby Boomer to understand that reference.. and an older boomer to boot. I refer you youngin’s to the composite image below showing a Miss Clairol TV commercial, circa 1957, where their commercial slogan became the popular uttered phrase in society at the time (and thru the 60’s)… “Does she or doesn’t she?” [pregnant pause to suggest a sexual entendre] “Only her hairdresser knows for sure.”
(If you truly need to watch a couple of these commercials from a period of white entitlement… HERE.)
Okay, enough with the Boomer metaphors already as an excuse to go back in time. My point is that with all the talk of Putin’s “imminent” invasion plans there are a few things that I can call into question at just how “imminent” it really appears. Now, we should acknowledge here that those of us not in the Presidential loop truly have no idea of the entire international picture in order to accurately or with any sort of credibility impose our opinions onto the world. In fact, all any of us have to judge “imminent” or not is what is pretty much mentioned in the media. Some of us might have had some background experience in policy, intel gathering to draw some measure of analysis with a fair amount of logical thought. Others might be just spit balling. I’ll accept this is me spit balling.
For me it all hinges how we might interpret all those satellite photos alleging the Russian military buildup. near the Ukrainian border. But there’s a bit more narrative one might suggest beyond just photos. So, here’s my rundown that suggests there’s no “imminent” invasion.
Observation #1 –
Earlier in this post I alluded to the idea that what we tend to see as troop movements, dialog between parties released to the press about demands, diplomats traveling here and there in photos… all this is a form of a language between all concerned parties. When we see these things on the news there’s a tendency to accept it at face value of the moment… the event occurs, hence we respond to the event at the moment. In reality it can be part of a greater non-verbal communication; a part of negotiation. This all means that us in the public world should not accept it all at face value and respond accordingly. To make the point, as long as this “language” is being spoken, then there is no fighting and dying going on. One day at a time.. and each day a victory for life.
Observation #2 –
My obvious faith and optimism aside, Putin and his military know all too well that while a “conquest” of the Ukraine by Russia would be a given in any all out conflict because of the comparative Russian military prowess, the reality is that a lot of Russian military will go home in body bags back to their families and loved ones. In fact, it would be a protracted conflict because of the inevitable guerilla warfare to follow… and a constant trickle of more body bags going home. Russians remember all too well their own debacle in Afghanistan. The taking of Crimea was a cakewalk… the taking of the Ukraine will not be a cakewalk. Given that, Putin himself honestly fears the crowds in the streets calling for his removal.. and fearing that could be by force in a coup. Yep.. seems remote at the moment, but when the dead start coming home and the sanctions take effect, things will change. Putin wants to be a national hero to retain power. When he was in East Germany with the KGB he was scared as hell when the collapse came and the crowds took to the streets. He may be the dictator calling the shots over there but the Russian people do have certain status quo living expectations that have to be met.. and let’s not forget the oligarchs who do wield some power over there. Dictator or not, there’s a certain measure of Russian prosperity going on.
We should also keep in mind the extreme humanitarian effort the “conquered” Ukrainians would require from Russia. Infrastructure will likely be damaged, the economy in a shambles. Just occupying the Ukraine would be a huge drain on Russian society. Does Putin want that? Even if his military only advances to the point of, say, the Dnieper River, if he invades from the less populated east… he could partition the Ukraine to get his “buffer state”.
Observation #3 –
Then there’s those sat photos. Let’s explore those. Here’s two of them to make my point. Care to guess the obvious similarity between just these two?
Well, to me these look simply like big parking lots. Tanks, transport vehicles, armored, un-armored. Yes.. these places for the most part have been carved out of the Russian wilderness and they look to me to be “staging areas”.. parking lots. You see anything truly threatening here? Do you see these vehicles lined up along the Russian frontier with Ukraine, poised to invade across the farmlands and steppe in some blitzkrieg fashion? You seeing these vehicles staged along the roads leading into Ukraine.. lined up along the highways to smash across the Ukraine border? Do you see any military barracks or living quarters of soldiers at the ready to man all these vehicles in a quick response when Putin gives the word? Looks to me from this second photo that when Putin gives the word someone will need to shuttle troops out to this place to get to their vehicles. This place rather reminds me of one of those parking lot annexes at O’Hare Airport in Chicago.. and the only why to get in and out of there is by airport shuttle bus.
In fact, where are all the sat photos of emplaced artillery, positioned armor along the countryside ready to attack? Let’s go even a step further. We are currently in the middle of a Russian Winter. Are these vehicles even going to start up right away when the go-word is given? You see any support vehicles, trailers, to keep these vehicles warmed up for starting?
Look, I am fully aware that there are likely some military installations with troops bivouacked for rapid deployment. I am also fully aware that plans are very likely in place by the Russian military for the actual invasion itself if for no other reason than to allow Putin with actionable options. But we really need to see these photos for what they are more than what we are being allowed to conclude on the surface. To me this is NOT a force ready to invade anything. No question it’s a force in some form of preparation for a possible military action.
I think we can also assume that our own intel services are getting live video and can monitor movements in real time. These photos reveal to me there is no immediate plans for deploying these forces as it would take a measure of time to get operationally ready… much less being formed into a strategic strike position. I can only assume such activity would be readily picked up by our intel folks as well as our allies. I also noticed that these sampling of photos don’t seem to suggest any staging of aircraft, more specifically rotor aircraft. Likely fixed wing strike aircraft would be located at regular air facilities inland. But you’d think support helicopters might be more visible… not that they can’t be in hangar structures. But choppers being inside structures take time to get operational. Helicopters would be part of any first strike invasion action if for nothing else but rapid troop deployment to specific strategic targets.
My Conclusion….
Putin may yet invade, but it will certainly NOT be a surprise, no Russkie “Pearl Harbor”, because there seems there’s a lot his military would have to do to get it all in gear. Also consider another thing from these photos… Putin knows satellites are seeing all this. Honestly, these staging areas seem “posed” for the sats. I firmly believe he wants that to present a visual threat of his POSSIBLE intentions. That much seems to be working. But, wait… we live in the age of drone strikes! Every one of these locations is known and hence is a target. You see any SAM sites? Missile launch vehicles? So who is really the most vulnerable here?
Hi Doug,
Honestly this is a great post. I enjoyed reading it and being a boomer, I understood the “Only His Hairdresser Knows.” BTW, I loved that picture. I remember that but not from 1957 – more like beginning in 1961-62. Remember the “A little dab will do you”? LOL! Okay enough playing around because I already gave my age away, sorta! LOL 🙂
I think the US media hyped up what Russia will do, invade, not invade. I have to admit at first, I fell for it. Who wants Russia in anyone’s soup! Uh Oh, I would hate to think some stay hairs of Putin’s fell into that soup. YUK! Don’t mean to be gross but that is how most people feel we want him out of our business and other nations business too. But that is not a real world. In a real-world Putin hopes to be the next Lenin. I have no doubts, or even Stalin. He is clever and smart and hate to say that but he is.
Whatever happens in Ukraine, and they seem not be worried about it, happens. In the meantime how about, we ask Putin’s hair dresser and I bet he will hand us some VO5 and say a little dab will do you! 🙂
Great post. Thank you.
Ha! Thanks! Yep.. VO5.. little dab’ll do ya. 🙂 Jingles galore back then.. and we still recall them.
Good post Doug…..could those Russian units be in response to the NATO forces build up? (Sorry I tried to find a map with those stats but all that I could find was the Russian forces). The US keeps sending in forces to Ukraine. This ixs a tit for tat build-up…keep in mind 65% of the American people say a war with Russia is a horrible idea…..but as usual the only voices the Pentagon listens to is the cash following from the defense industry.
I thought it was Brylcreem….yes I am an extreme old fart. Be well….chuq
This sort of tells the tale…that I mentioned…..https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-multinational-battle-groups-in-eastern-europe-to-counter-russia-2018-6
Hope that helps. chuq
Yeah.. Brylcreem. 🙂
Good link.. thanks! I believe our people inside Ukraine itself are non-combatant advisors with little or no combat support equipment. The Russians were first to kick up the troop ante in the region which led to our sending some defensive weapons to Ukraine with our trainers. Ukraine is not a NATO member nation. Our troop deployments to the East European (former Soviet Bloc) NATO members is largely symbolic for the morale of NATO in general and in those member nations to reassure our commitment to NATO with the imposing Russian threat to Ukraine. But that symbolic gesture is important in spite of the military strength itself not able to meet any head-on Russian attack. It’s a bit like our drawing a line in the sand and telling Russia that “you come here and America will fight you”. But that’s NOT our commitment to Ukraine, hence the threat of sanctions. No one here really wants to see Americans die to save Ukraine from Putin… but we are willing to do other measures with substantial pressures. I’m sure you already know this stuff… but there will be a lot on the line for Putin should he decide to do this.
From a diplomatic sense, it helps if we can provide some kind of “off ramp” for Putin to pull away from this to not lose face at home.
Advisors….kinda like Vietnam? I can understand Russia’s paranoia…..they are basically surrounded by NATO….sanctions seldom work so there is that…..will all this be another Cuba? Are we seriously looking for that off ramp?
Like you say we do not have a direct line to the thinking at the Pentagon….but the optics are not too encouraging.
“Open wide for Chunky” Sticks in my mind….and no it is not a reference to some porn thing….LOL chuq
Yeah, chuq, I picked up on that “advisors” thing as well, with the echo of Vietnam.
Chunky… lol.
Invading Ukraine would not be good for Russia economically. Russian companies earn billions from supplying gas, coal, and electricity to other countries, (including being the main supplier to Germany) and that would stop if sanctions were imposed. It is also likely that Germany would face an unprecedented fuel crisis that could paralyse that country. As for the huge ‘support’ given to Ukraine, (incuding British army ‘instructors’, and 88 million pounds of our taxpayers’ money) this is a loss-leader. Help now, then reap the rewards later. Military contracts, export deals, and Ukraine owing the west big time.
And why is everyone so happy to support a far-right neo-facist government anyway? Would they have rallied to support Germany against Poland in 1939? https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraines-far-right-warriors-set-for-war-with-russia-f335tvl8v
People need to read some history books, and look at who is really in power in Ukraine.
Best wishes, Pete.
Good points, Pete, no one commenting has suggested. I can’t answer for the accuracy of what you are suggesting but you are surely correct in that history does tend to repeat itself and there’s a rule of reasonableness to presume there’s more to this than just “poor Ukraine”. It’s also important for us Americans to realize that it’s more than just us doing the “advisor thing” and sending military aid. I wasn’t overly aware the government of Ukraine shared some neo-fascist tendencies, although I did attribute that to Belarus. Thanks for that.
You said. It comes down to money…invading Ukraine would not be good for the Russian economy. DITTO
To me this is NOT a force ready to invade anything.
Great post Doug. From my experience, this is exactly what it looks like when a force is postured to conduct an operation within a week or so. Vehicles and other equipment are staged exactly such as this [exactly as our forces were waiting to invade Iraq twice]. You simply don’t conduct the last stages of supply and planning with everyone literally sitting on the border with engines running. To do so, would be to sap your combat power before operations even begin. We track indicators and warnings for events such as these, and all signs certainly point to Russia being prepared to cross the border with Ukraine.
Whether Putin will or not, is certainly not known to me…but the curious part of the negotiations revolve around Ukraine’s admittance to NATO. Ukraine has no hope of becoming a member as long as the Luhansk and Donetsk “People’s Republics” exist. This of course, along with the seizure of Crimea, was part of Putin’s long game to explicitly prevent Ukraine admittance.
He’s either angling for more concessions, or he’ll seek to formalize [and likely annex] the two breakaway regions. Fracturing NATO would be a bonus. Russia has always sought a buffer along it’s western frontier….and not without decent reason.
Oh for sure, Jeff… and you have more military experience to see the difference. As for Ukraine joining NATO.. for the reasons you stated (and some others) the last I heard Ukraine was at best something like 10-15 years out from meeting NATO criteria for joining. What’s Putin worried about when he’s not likely to be in the picture at that point? Although it’s being suggested that one of his concerns is that if Ukraine gets into NATO then Ukraine could justify trying to re-take Crimea as defensive, and Putin ends up fighting NATO directly. Who knows.
All true.
Doug,
Perhaps Putin is looking for USA to remove some sanctions already in place?
On the other hand, even the USA blockaded Cuba when they were about to install Russian nuclear missiles 200 miles from the USA?
Then again Ukraine has vast minerals and oil resources as well as crop producing land areas in the world?
Guess we have to wait and see if history is going to repeat again on ageless motives for war.
World economic sanctions will resume the Cold War that wound up in the collapse of Russia before Russia became the main source of energy for Europe.
Regards and goodwill blogging.
Agreed, Rudy… the “Cuba thing” resonates in the background in exploring Putin’s concern with the Ukraine.
Good analysis… but you overlook a couple of points. Russian news has been saying that NATO is to blame for tensions in eastern Europe… NATO forces are massed on the border of Belarus… NATO has refused to consider Putin’s demands to keep the peace (namely, that they withdraw NATO troops from eastern European countries and promise never to let Ukraine join NATO). Putin is frightened that he could lose power in Russia. He wants his people to feel threatened. Moreover, he wants to be prepared for any opportunity to enter Ukraine…and evidence was released last month that Russia was seeking to sponsor false flag anti-Russia events in Ukraine and to support a pro-Russian government in Ukraine. Putin is already propping up pro-Russian dictators in Kazakhstan and Belarus. He recently had to send extra forces into Kazakhstan to keep his dictator from losing his grip on the country. Putin cannot afford a war with the west, but he’s also having trouble affording the cost of maintaining the status quo. J.
All that is so true, J. I think we can also agree that Putin is old KGB and likely would love to see he old USSR empire back in play as a matter of personal nationalistic pride for him.
(Liked your philosophy posts, btw)
Doug…Russia is trying to rally forces in his favor….moving troops into Belarus and making nice with China and we know what is going on in South China Sea….starting to look like a game of ‘Risk’….
This is about the coup attempt in Central Asia….https://www.rferl.org/a/central_asia_soviet_coup_anniversary/24301711.html
I just do not see Putin being stupid enough to start a war….he is trying to make the US make the first deadly move…..he is baiting us.
How about ‘lift and separate’ ad?
Be well chuq
chuq… “My men wear English Leather or they wear nothing at all.” 🙂 Or the ever seductive….
“Take it off. Take it ALL off.” (Noxema… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkpGM_MvZ2Y)
Ain’t nostalgia great? LOL chuq
Sorry the link is an old one…..my bad…..it was a saved link for a post I am working on…..brain farts….LOL chuq
Doug, if you’re interested….this blog gives a great general insight into military affairs, and the linked post does specifically for the Russian buildup around Ukraine:
https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2022/02/rob-lee-is-covering-flow-of-forces-to.html
It is an awesome site and has great insight.
Interesting blog there, Jeff. I can see the interest in the armchair strategy. Those folks are really into it with even identifying units and specialties. I’ll be checking this out. Thanks for the link!
CNN posted today from their Pentagon reporter that military intel is indicating Russia has 70% of military capability in place for a full scale invasion. Seems to me that rather supports what I was suggesting that all these weeks of “imminent” has hardly been that urgent after all. If this intel reporting is suggesting the Russians are 30% away from full capability.. then they have a ways to go. Days? Perhaps.. but I suspect weeks, even if only a couple. Again.. staging it all is one thing. Deploying it all is their challenge.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/05/politics/russia-military-ukraine/index.html